Economic forecast, winter 2015
The Icelandic economy grew by 1.8% in 2014, when domestic demand increased by 5.2% due mainly to private consumption growth of 3.1% and investment growth of 15.4%. Import growth in excess of export growth is responsible for the large disparity of GDP and domestic demand growth in 2014. GDP growth is forecast at 4.3% in 2015, 3.5% in 2016 and between 2.5–2.8% in 2017–2019. Private consumption is expected to increase by 4.4% in 2015, 4.7% in 2016, 4.2% in 2017 and close to 3% in 2018–2019. Investment growth is predicted to be 17.7% in 2015, 15.5% in 2016, 5.2% in 2017, but flat in 2018–2019 as foreseeable large scale industrial investments draw to a close. Estimated growth for public consumption is 1.5% in 2015, and between 1.1 to 1.5% over the period 2016-2019. Public investment which grew by 12.8% in 2014 is expected to grow much slower in 2015 and 2016, only by 2.2% and 1.8% respectively.