A publication on Population projection in Iceland 2007–2050 is now available in Statistics Iceland’s Statistical Series Hagtíðindi. According to the projection, population in Iceland will increase from 307,672 in 2007 to 437,844 in 2050. Mean annual population increase during this period will be 0.8%. 

Population increase is both due to a relatively high natural increase and to high net-immigration rate. We assume that fertility remains at a level of 2.1 until 2015. Between 2015 and 2050 fertility is projected to decline to 1.85. Net immigration rate will be around 3 per 1,000 inhabitants during the projection period. A as consequence of high net-immigration the share of persons with foreign background will increase during the projection period. 

Life expectancy will increase from 78.9 to 84.6 for men and 82.8 to 87.1 years for women. A consequence of fertility decline and increase in life expectancy is population ageing. During the projection period, the share of older persons in the Icelandic population grows relative to that of younger persons. By 2050 the share of population above the age of 80 will be 7.5% as compared with 3.1% in 2007. During this period the share of persons 65 and older will increase from 11.5% to 20.5%.

Because of comparatively high total fertility rate, the share of children remains relatively high in Iceland throughout the projection period. In 2050 25.8% of the population belongs to the age group 0–19 as compared with 28.8% in 2007.

Population projection in Iceland 2007–2050 - Statistical Series