A publication on Population projection is now available in Statistics Iceland‘s Statistical Series Hagtíðindi. According to the projection of Statistics Iceland, population in Iceland will increase from 313,376 to 408,835 between 2008 and 2050. Mean annual population increase during this period will be 0.7%.

Population increase is both due to a relatively high natural increase and to high net-immigration rate. It is assumed that total fertility remains at a level of 2.1 in 2008 and 2009. During the years 2010–2015 total fertility will be slightly higher than 2.0. Between 2015 and 2050 fertility is projected to decline to 1.85. Net immigration rate will be negative between 2009 and 2011 and then rise to a rate of 2 per 1,000 in-habitants during the 2020s. As a consequence of high net-immigration the share of persons with foreign background will increase during the projection period.

Life expectancy will increase from 79.4 to 84.6 years for men and 82.9 to 87.1 years for women. A consequence of fertility decline and increase in life expectancy is population ageing. During the projection period, the share of older persons in the Icelandic population grows relative to that of younger persons. By 2050 the share of population above the age of 80 will be 8.3% as compared with 3.2% in 2008. During this period the share of persons 65 years and older will increase from 11.6% to 23.1%.

Because of comparatively high total fertility rate, the share of children remains relatively high in Iceland throughout the projection period. In 2050, 22.9% of the population belongs to the age group 0–19 as compared with 28.5% in 2008.

Population projection 2008-2050 - Statistical Series