Statistics Iceland has revised the population projections for 2020-2069. According to the medium variant of the revised population projection, the Icelandic population is projected to grow from 364 to 445 thousand in the next 50 years. The high variant predicts a population of 527 thousand inhabitants while the low variant projects 370 thousand inhabitants in 2069. The forecast for life expectancy is the same as previously published in December 2020.

The model for migration of foreign citizens has been updated in order to improve the age distribution of the projected population. The new model takes into account the age of immigrants as well as their date of arrival and length of stay in Iceland, in order to predict the number and age of emigrants.

The forecast is based on statistical models for migration, fertility and mortality. Statistics Iceland publishes three population projection variants, medium, low and high, for 2020-2069, based on different economic, fertility and mortality assumptions. The future population size and its age structure are part of the forecast.

Figures have been updated.